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epidemiology – Page 3 – deonandia

CATEGORY / epidemiology

COVID-19: Let’s Talk Again of the Base Rate Fallacy

by Raywat Deonandan, PhD
Epidemiologist & Associate Professor
University of Ottawa
(I add my credentials to these COVID-19 blog posts in case they get shared. I want readers to know that my opinion is supposedly an educated and informed one)

Since the start of the pandemic, the general public has received a rapid education in some of the terms with which only Epidemiologists used to be familiar. Ideas and words like “herd immunity” and “reproduction number” are now casually bandied about people who had never heard the word “epidemiology” before 2020. (more…)

COVID-19: Will It Mutate to Nothingness?

https://daily.jstor.org/viral-mutation-for-the-perplexed/

by Raywat Deonandan, PhD
Epidemiologist & Associate Professor
University of Ottawa
(I add my credentials to these COVID-19 blog posts in case they get shared. I want readers to know that my opinion is supposedly an educated and informed one)

My sister recently asked me if viruses like the one that causes COVID-19 always mutate, or evolve, toward less lethality. This is a common question these days since new COVID variants are now appearing regularly, and since COVID misinformation merchant Dr Kelly Victory famously claimed that as viruses mutate, they “become more contagious/transmissible and less lethal.”

This is decidedly not true, as I will try to explain below. But before I do so, here’s my caveat: I am not a virologist or an evolutionary biologist. I’m a lowly global health epidemiologist who observes and studies a variety of diseases and health states on the world stage. In this post, I’m interpreting and translating the work of others. (more…)

COVID-19: The Road to Endemicity

by Raywat Deonandan, PhD
Epidemiologist & Associate Professor
University of Ottawa
(I add my credentials to these COVID-19 blog posts in case they get shared. I want readers to know that my opinion is supposedly an educated and informed one)

I’ve been blogging about this pandemic for almost two years now. One of my earliest posts on this topic was back in March of last year, in which I described the concept of herd immunity, as well as some other textbook ideas in epidemic management. Back then, these things were new to non-scientists, so that post went sort of viral (pun intended). Today, many people now have a degree of comfort with the terminology and basic concepts of epidemiology. But one idea is still relatively new to most: endemicity. (more…)

COVID-19: Even More Q&A

by Raywat Deonandan, PhD
Epidemiologist & Associate Professor
University of Ottawa
(I add my credentials to these COVID-19 blog posts in case they get shared. I want readers to know that my opinion is supposedly an educated and informed one)

Today’s post is a bit of a hodgepodge of topics people have been asking me to talk about. Let’s begin with a question from a concerned citizen, who asked:

(more…)


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